Who will place higher at the U.S. Open ? Tiger or Phil

When Phil Mickelson drives it well, or the rough is not penal, he's one of the guys to beat.

When Tiger drives it well, game over. When he doesn't he still figures out how to compete.

The rough at Winged Foot, from what 2 of my work friends told me who were there setting up some network equipment today, is UNBELIEVABLE due to all the rain we have had up this way. They have 3 cuts this year.

Just off the fairway - 1"-1.5", for about 3 yards or so
After that, for maybe 12-15 paces, 4"
After that - Anyone's guess, but a matted down 8" was the estimate.

Winged Foot also has a set of VERY small greens with TONS of subtle slopes in them. I've had the chance to play both Winged Foot courses, and while the greens on the East Course are MORE difficult, the greens on the West are very tough as well. The East only stretches out to about 6700, and I believe it hosted the 1980 Senior Open. The West is the more famous course and hosted the US Open in 59, 74, 84 I think, and this year. Amazing golf course, and it ATE UP the Amateurs in 2004. I know, there is a huge difference, but I'll tell you, the rough was 3-3.5" in AUGUST with firm/fast conditions.

Holes to look for (ones I can remember the best)

#6 - A driveable, for the real long, par 4 depending on where they put the tee. It was 321 for the Amateur and it's slightly downhill. The groups I followed were about 50/50 going for it. The guys who went for it did not fair much better since the green runs AWAY from you on the approach, so if you were 30/40 yards, sticking it was tough. It's going to play the same length at the Open.

#7 - Beautiful Par 3, up hill, probably a 7 iron or 8 iron for these guys. Very small target as the green has tons of slope

#8 - Cut the corner baby. Guys can cut the corner if they dare here and make 475 play shorter.

#9: A 514 yd par 4.. YES, you heard me right, a par 4. The tee shot plays DRAMATICALLY downhill, but in these moist conditions, man is that hole going to be a beast. It's dead straight away, so there will be no cutting the corner.

#10: Signature Hole - Tee shot right behind the clubhouse, and over a valley to a very sloped green.

#12: Hoot length par 5 at 640 yards. NOONE, not a single 1, attempted to reach this par 5 in the Amateur.

#14: 458 yd par 4 where drivers are left in the bag. Creek runs across, and the green has so much slope you will never believe it.

#16: Very dramatic match play hole that did not play nearly this long in the Amateur (478). Must stay right to get a clear shot into the green

#18: 450 yd par 4, to an elevated green. Green is so sloped left to right..

I think -3 or so will win this open, and it could be worse. I think Tiger knows how to get up and down and can handle this type of course better than Phil.